Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062024 240807 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.40    141.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.0  14.7  10.7  12.1  10.6  16.6  16.6  20.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  37.0  32.0  29.0  21.0  16.0  17.0  27.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  53.0  86.0  41.0  30.0  29.0   0.0 -31.0  U  N  F  N  N  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  65.0  61.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   8.0   4.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        7.5%        5.0%
 25kt / 24h       20.6%       53.2%       36.9%
 30kt / 24h       10.6%       35.1%       22.9%
 35kt / 24h        7.4%       34.4%       20.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.5%       34.4%       18.0%
 45kt / 36h       21.1%       66.7%       43.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       48.3%       24.1%
 55kt / 48h       34.4%       48.5%       41.4%
 70kt / 48h       14.9%       39.8%       27.4%
 65kt / 72h       25.2%       49.8%       37.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.24

 WP062024 240807 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.40    141.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.0  14.7  10.7  12.1  10.6  16.6  16.6  20.2  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  71.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  65.0  61.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0   2.0   3.0   4.0   8.0   4.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%