Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062024 240808 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.40    143.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.6  12.0  13.4  12.8  14.3  15.3  18.5  16.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  28.0  26.0  20.0  14.0  24.0  19.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0  41.0  12.0  24.0  25.0  15.0 -41.0 -13.0  F  N  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  74.0  73.0  74.0  65.0  58.0  52.0  51.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   5.0   5.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.1%       18.2%       14.7%
 25kt / 24h       35.9%       66.7%       51.3%
 30kt / 24h       25.2%       55.6%       40.4%
 35kt / 24h       25.2%       55.6%       40.4%
 40kt / 24h        4.2%       55.1%       29.6%
 45kt / 36h       29.9%       71.7%       50.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       56.8%       28.4%
 55kt / 48h       32.9%       52.4%       42.6%
 70kt / 48h        9.8%       41.0%       25.4%
 65kt / 72h       12.8%       42.8%       27.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.70

 WP062024 240808 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.40    143.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.6  12.0  13.4  12.8  14.3  15.3  18.5  16.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  74.0  73.0  74.0  65.0  58.0  52.0  51.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   5.0   5.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%