Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062024 240808 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.80    145.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  12.4  13.4  15.7  14.8  16.8   9.7  12.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  20.0  14.0  14.0  26.0  20.0  28.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 104.3  92.9  95.1  97.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  49.0  62.0  21.0  37.0  -5.0 -59.0 -26.0  U  N  N  U  N  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  65.0  64.0  59.0  57.0  48.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   3.0  10.0   7.0   9.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       46.8%       35.6%       41.2%
 25kt / 24h       55.0%       73.2%       64.1%
 30kt / 24h       53.4%       70.6%       62.0%
 35kt / 24h       53.4%       70.6%       62.0%
 40kt / 24h       33.7%       70.6%       52.1%
 45kt / 36h       42.7%       63.6%       53.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       48.2%       24.1%
 55kt / 48h       22.0%       38.8%       30.4%
 70kt / 48h        6.7%       19.4%       13.1%
 65kt / 72h        6.0%       20.0%       13.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.08

 WP062024 240808 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.80    145.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  12.4  13.4  15.7  14.8  16.8   9.7  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  65.0  64.0  59.0  57.0  48.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   3.0  10.0   7.0   9.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  F  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%