Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062024 240808 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.00    145.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  12.2  14.1  17.4  19.0  14.3  13.2  18.2  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  14.0  14.0  22.0  17.0  20.0   9.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  80.7  70.5  66.6  49.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  66.0  12.0 -31.0  37.0 -71.0 -48.0 -10.0  N  N  U VU  N VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  66.0  63.0  62.0  59.0  59.0  52.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   8.0   5.0  11.0   2.0   3.0   4.0  -4.0  N  U  N  U  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       59.5%       36.2%       47.8%
 25kt / 24h       59.6%       67.5%       63.6%
 30kt / 24h       59.6%       66.6%       63.1%
 35kt / 24h       59.6%       66.6%       63.1%
 40kt / 24h       41.9%       66.6%       54.3%
 45kt / 36h       38.8%       42.7%       40.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       25.6%       12.8%
 55kt / 48h        9.1%       17.4%       13.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        6.1%        4.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        3.9%        2.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.82

 WP062024 240808 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.00    145.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.6  12.2  14.1  17.4  19.0  14.3  13.2  18.2  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  66.0  63.0  62.0  59.0  59.0  52.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   8.0   5.0  11.0   2.0   3.0   4.0  -4.0  N  F  N  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%