Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062024 240809 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.80    145.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  16.9  13.7  14.2  20.5  12.1  15.4  17.2  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  18.0  29.0  30.0  29.0  54.0  10.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  92.3  92.3  75.5  45.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  33.0  13.0 -16.0 -42.0 -30.0 -16.0 -22.0  N  N  U  U VU VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  54.0  50.0  48.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   8.0   5.0   7.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  -6.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.3%        4.8%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h       10.7%       25.1%       17.9%
 30kt / 24h        9.3%       18.0%       13.6%
 35kt / 24h        7.8%       18.0%       12.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%       18.0%       10.2%
 45kt / 36h        9.5%        8.5%        9.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%        9.3%        7.8%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        1.3%        1.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        1.9%        2.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.68

 WP062024 240809 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.80    145.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  16.9  13.7  14.2  20.5  12.1  15.4  17.2  U  N  U  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  63.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  54.0  50.0  48.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   8.0   5.0   7.0   0.0   1.0  -1.0  -6.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%