Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062024 240809 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.10    145.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  16.2  12.9  16.2  15.2   9.1  19.8   9.7  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  31.0  30.0  23.0  33.0  17.0   5.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0  99.6 102.0 105.0  99.6  86.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  17.0  -2.0 -19.0 -25.0   3.0 -10.0 -11.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  64.0  61.0  57.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  52.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   3.0   9.0   2.0   4.0  -2.0  -9.0   1.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        2.4%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%       14.9%        9.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.0%        9.2%        6.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%        9.1%        5.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        9.1%        4.8%
 45kt / 36h        3.8%        5.6%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%        8.3%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        3.1%        2.8%        2.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.56

 WP062024 240809 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.10    145.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  16.2  12.9  16.2  15.2   9.1  19.8   9.7  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  64.0  61.0  57.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  52.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   3.0   9.0   2.0   4.0  -2.0  -9.0   1.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%