Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062024 240809 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.90    145.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  12.3  15.5  19.6   9.8  14.0  14.9  14.7  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  29.0  21.0  23.0  27.0   9.0  22.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3 110.0 110.0  87.4  85.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  16.0 -15.0 -23.0 -20.0 -27.0  -4.0  -7.0  N  U  U VU VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  55.0  53.0  50.0  53.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  10.0   2.0   4.0   2.0  -3.0 -17.0   3.0  N  U  N  N  N  N VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        2.0%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%       11.6%        6.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        6.3%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        6.2%        3.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        6.2%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        4.3%        5.8%        5.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        4.8%        7.9%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        1.1%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%        2.8%        3.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 WP062024 240809 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.90    145.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.8  12.3  15.5  19.6   9.8  14.0  14.9  14.7  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  55.0  53.0  50.0  53.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  10.0   2.0   4.0   2.0  -3.0 -17.0   3.0  N  F  N  N  N  N VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%