Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062024 240809 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.10    146.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  13.8  20.1  21.9  16.2  18.9  14.4  19.4  F  F  N  N  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  23.0  27.0  38.0  55.0   5.0  28.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 114.6 110.1 107.9 112.3  91.6  77.7  76.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0   3.0 -10.0 -38.0 -50.0 -24.0 -19.0  19.0  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  49.0  47.0  45.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   3.0   3.0   7.0   0.0 -12.0   0.0   8.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.3%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        2.0%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        1.4%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        3.9%        1.0%        2.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.26

 WP062024 240809 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.10    146.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.1  13.8  20.1  21.9  16.2  18.9  14.4  19.4  U  U  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  49.0  47.0  45.0  52.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   3.0   3.0   7.0   0.0 -12.0   0.0   8.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%