Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062024 240810 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.00    146.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  17.2  17.6  13.9  16.7  13.9  13.5  18.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  31.0  43.0  49.0  13.0  24.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.6 109.6 114.3 115.0 115.0  86.6  83.0  66.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -10.0 -37.0 -10.0 -30.0 -27.0  11.0   7.0  20.0  U VU  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  45.0  45.0  50.0  55.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   3.0  -6.0   0.0  -5.0   7.0   6.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.9%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%       12.2%        7.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        6.2%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        6.0%        4.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        6.0%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        4.5%        8.2%        6.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        4.0%        5.2%        4.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        1.4%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        6.0%        2.6%        4.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.34

 WP062024 240810 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.00    146.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  17.2  17.6  13.9  16.7  13.9  13.5  18.7  U  N  N  U  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  45.0  45.0  50.0  55.0  F  F  F  F VF VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   3.0  -6.0   0.0  -5.0   7.0   6.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%