Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062024 240810 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.00    145.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  18.7  15.7  16.4  21.8  11.5  17.9  23.3  N  N  F  F  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  53.0  51.0  34.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.3 120.0 120.0 120.0  91.6  93.5  68.6  67.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -50.0  -5.0 -36.0 -28.0 -32.0   0.0  37.0  11.0 VU  U VU VU VU  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  55.0  53.0  55.0  53.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0  -3.0  -6.0  -9.0   6.0   7.0   5.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.7%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.9%       11.3%        6.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        5.8%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        5.3%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        5.3%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        5.6%        3.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        2.7%        1.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        1.6%        1.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 WP062024 240810 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.00    145.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.2  18.7  15.7  16.4  21.8  11.5  17.9  23.3  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  55.0  53.0  55.0  53.0  60.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0  -3.0  -6.0  -9.0   6.0   7.0   5.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%