Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062024 240810 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.20    145.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  16.1  16.2  17.0  15.7  13.1  13.1  14.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  54.0  49.0  21.0  22.0  24.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        109.6 115.0 115.0 115.0  83.0  79.4  63.6  66.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0 -18.0 -18.0 -35.0 -10.0  26.0  18.0  15.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  54.0  53.0  52.0  55.0  59.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0 -11.0   0.0  -7.0  -1.0   5.0  -1.0  N  N  F  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        2.4%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%       12.4%        7.9%
 30kt / 24h        3.4%        6.0%        4.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.9%        5.9%        4.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        5.9%        3.3%
 45kt / 36h        3.0%        6.2%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        2.9%        2.7%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        1.2%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.9%        1.8%        1.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.40

 WP062024 240810 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.20    145.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.8  16.1  16.2  17.0  15.7  13.1  13.1  14.7  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  54.0  53.0  52.0  55.0  59.0  59.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0 -11.0   0.0  -7.0  -1.0   5.0  -1.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%