Rapid Intensification Guidance WP062024 240811 00UTC Storm Located at : 37.50 144.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 20.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.80 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.2 18.1 18.9 12.1 11.8 17.9 13.7 13.9 F F N F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 53.0 27.0 35.0 31.0 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 105.7 105.7 88.0 73.0 77.7 65.8 63.0 65.8 N N N U N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 3.0 -21.0 -4.0 37.0 10.0 25.0 13.0 14.0 U VU U N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 49.0 46.0 48.0 52.0 56.0 55.0 51.0 U U VU U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 3.0 0.0 -2.0 7.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 1.1% 0.8% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 3.6% 2.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.5% 0.9% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 0.4% 4.1% 2.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 4.8% 0.7% 2.8% 70kt / 48h 4.8% 0.7% 2.7% 65kt / 72h 2.4% 1.1% 1.7% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.24 WP062024 240811 00UTC Storm Located at : 37.50 144.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.