Rapid Intensification Guidance WP062024 240811 06UTC Storm Located at : 37.60 143.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.00 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.3 21.4 17.7 11.2 11.5 17.7 8.8 13.3 N N F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 37.0 0.0 27.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 36.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 105.7 89.8 71.5 81.0 71.5 67.2 71.5 97.4 N N U N U U U N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -26.0 -3.0 -2.0 5.0 27.0 6.0 31.0 -4.0 VU U U U U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 45.0 44.0 48.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 50.0 U VU VU U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 11.0 6.0 11.0 6.0 1.0 -2.0 -3.0 N U N U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.6% 1.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.4% 3.4% 1.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 70kt / 48h 4.1% 0.5% 2.3% 65kt / 72h 3.0% 1.4% 2.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.06 WP062024 240811 06UTC Storm Located at : 37.60 143.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.