Rapid Intensification Guidance WP062024 240811 12UTC Storm Located at : 37.80 143.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 5.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.30 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.2 16.6 10.9 11.3 12.3 14.2 10.4 8.4 N F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 37.0 33.0 29.0 24.0 0.0 0.0 13.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 84.8 69.6 74.3 77.7 63.6 60.8 71.1 86.6 N U U N U U U N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 20.0 14.0 3.0 10.0 -6.0 11.0 4.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 48.0 53.0 56.0 62.0 62.0 63.0 61.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 2.0 7.0 6.0 3.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 3.1% 1.8% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.3% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.7% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.6% 3.3% 2.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.84 WP062024 240811 12UTC Storm Located at : 37.80 143.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.