Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062024 240811 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.30    142.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  12.5  11.1  11.6  18.2  13.8   8.1   9.2  F  F  F  F  F  F VF  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  35.0  26.0  18.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         71.1  68.0  72.7  69.6  60.8  59.4  66.5  76.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0   9.0   3.0  21.0   5.0   2.0   5.0  23.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  53.0  54.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  58.0  58.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  12.0   8.0   5.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.7%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.3%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.5%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.2%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.40

 WP062024 240811 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.30    142.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.