Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062024 240812 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.80    138.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.8  16.3  14.8  12.2   9.1  12.0  11.4  10.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  15.0  22.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         83.0  76.7  76.7  76.7  85.8  96.1 104.4 111.6  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  18.0  12.0 -14.0 -19.0  12.0  35.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  54.0  53.0  52.0  51.0  52.0  49.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.7%        3.7%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.7%        0.3%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        3.4%        1.4%        2.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.10

 WP062024 240812 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.80    138.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.