Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062024 240813 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     42.30    139.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  16.8  12.4  14.7  14.7  18.8  24.3  24.3  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.8  75.9  81.7  85.4  84.2  74.8  62.4  62.4  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  -7.0  34.0   3.0 -18.0 -37.0  -5.0  -5.0  U  U  N  U  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  51.0  52.0  52.0  53.0  53.0  58.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   3.0   4.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.50

 WP062024 240813 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     42.30    139.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.