Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072024 240812 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.00    150.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  32.0  29.4  26.9  17.7  11.6  11.6  11.6  N  U  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   5.0   4.0  12.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.7  87.7  86.0  84.3  61.7  36.9  36.9  36.9  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -22.0 -29.0 -25.0   0.0   0.0 -14.0 -14.0 -14.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  50.0  50.0  51.0  56.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0   1.0  -4.0  -9.0   3.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  F  N  F  F  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.36

 WP072024 240812 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.00    150.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.