Rapid Intensification Guidance WP072024 240812 18UTC Storm Located at : 34.10 149.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 96.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.4 29.1 26.9 23.8 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 U N N N F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 4.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 87.7 81.1 72.2 69.4 43.3 43.3 43.3 43.3 N N U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -23.0 -31.0 5.0 2.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 VU VU U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 49.0 50.0 53.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -4.0 -7.0 2.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 N F F N U U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.00 WP072024 240812 18UTC Storm Located at : 34.10 149.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.