Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP072024 240813 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.00    146.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.8  25.7  17.7  12.2  12.2  12.2  12.2  12.2  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.5  75.8  58.8  43.4  43.4  43.4  43.4  43.4  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  10.0  32.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  51.0  54.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0   0.0   2.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0   9.0  F  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.88

 WP072024 240813 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.00    146.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.