Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082024 240812 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60    136.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  16.6  15.2  16.8  16.5  19.9  12.3  11.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  44.0  34.0  28.0  29.0  37.0  31.0  33.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 137.0 134.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  32.0  34.0   9.0  10.0  -8.0  32.0  10.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  54.0  53.0  57.0  63.0  65.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   8.0   3.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.5%        3.9%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        8.1%       31.4%       19.7%
 30kt / 24h        4.6%       15.5%       10.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%       14.3%        8.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%       14.3%        7.4%
 45kt / 36h        9.2%       42.8%       26.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       21.8%       10.9%
 55kt / 48h       18.1%       23.7%       20.9%
 70kt / 48h       10.8%       18.5%       14.6%
 65kt / 72h       31.2%       41.1%       36.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.66

 WP082024 240812 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60    136.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.1  16.6  15.2  16.8  16.5  19.9  12.3  11.8  U  N  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  55.0  54.0  53.0  57.0  63.0  65.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   8.0   3.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%