Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082024 240812 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40    137.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  14.1  18.1  25.2  17.5  17.0  13.1  10.1  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  29.0  27.0  28.0  36.0  35.0  32.0  34.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  21.0  -1.0 -17.0  24.0  35.0  12.0  14.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  56.0  58.0  64.0  68.0  65.0  63.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   2.0  -2.0   7.0   6.0   3.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.2%        6.8%        5.5%
 25kt / 24h       10.2%       31.8%       21.0%
 30kt / 24h        7.2%       17.5%       12.3%
 35kt / 24h        4.4%       17.5%       10.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.8%       17.5%        9.6%
 45kt / 36h       11.3%       34.2%       22.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       15.7%        7.8%
 55kt / 48h       14.5%       21.6%       18.1%
 70kt / 48h        5.6%       11.1%        8.4%
 65kt / 72h       19.0%       28.1%       23.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.52

 WP082024 240812 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40    137.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  14.1  18.1  25.2  17.5  17.0  13.1  10.1  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  56.0  58.0  64.0  68.0  65.0  63.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   2.0  -2.0   7.0   6.0   3.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%