Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082024 240813 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.50    138.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     59.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.7  18.1  24.5  19.5  23.4  13.1  10.7   8.6  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  31.0  28.0  28.0  34.0  34.0  33.0  37.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0   0.0   7.0  22.0  20.0  19.0   3.0  33.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  54.0  58.0  58.0  62.0  67.0  64.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   9.0   1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        6.7%        4.6%
 25kt / 24h       10.1%       33.7%       21.9%
 30kt / 24h        5.5%       20.7%       13.1%
 35kt / 24h        4.4%       20.2%       12.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%       19.7%       10.2%
 45kt / 36h        9.2%       32.1%       20.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.9%        7.5%
 55kt / 48h       17.0%       24.2%       20.6%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%       10.8%        7.7%
 65kt / 72h       22.5%       29.9%       26.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.88

 WP082024 240813 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.50    138.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.7  18.1  24.5  19.5  23.4  13.1  10.7   8.6  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  54.0  58.0  58.0  62.0  67.0  64.0  62.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   9.0   1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%