Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082024 240813 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.50    138.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  21.6  21.1  20.9  12.8   9.8  11.8  15.3  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  28.0  32.0  35.0  34.0  34.0  32.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  45.0  47.0  42.0   8.0  22.0  30.0  19.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  63.0  64.0  69.0  66.0  63.0  58.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   3.0  -2.0   3.0  -3.0  -6.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.2%       18.0%       20.6%
 25kt / 24h       36.8%       54.6%       45.7%
 30kt / 24h       30.2%       44.5%       37.4%
 35kt / 24h       30.2%       44.5%       37.4%
 40kt / 24h       14.5%       44.5%       29.5%
 45kt / 36h       30.2%       51.7%       41.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       32.9%       16.4%
 55kt / 48h       21.7%       38.4%       30.1%
 70kt / 48h        7.8%       22.4%       15.1%
 65kt / 72h       14.1%       34.0%       24.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.76

 WP082024 240813 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.50    138.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  21.6  21.1  20.9  12.8   9.8  11.8  15.3  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  63.0  64.0  69.0  66.0  63.0  58.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   3.0  -2.0   3.0  -3.0  -6.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%