Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082024 240813 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.60    139.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  22.2  20.7  16.1  11.2  14.4   9.1  23.6  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  31.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  33.0  44.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  64.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  24.0  16.0  23.0   7.0  13.0  32.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  67.0  66.0  72.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   6.0  -3.0   5.0   4.0  -6.0 -10.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       14.1%       12.3%       13.2%
 25kt / 24h       25.5%       46.6%       36.0%
 30kt / 24h       21.0%       35.8%       28.4%
 35kt / 24h       21.0%       35.8%       28.4%
 40kt / 24h        8.2%       35.8%       22.0%
 45kt / 36h       25.9%       44.2%       35.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       25.5%       12.7%
 55kt / 48h       19.3%       32.1%       25.7%
 70kt / 48h        4.8%       14.8%        9.8%
 65kt / 72h        5.6%       18.5%       12.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.72

 WP082024 240813 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.60    139.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.4  22.2  20.7  16.1  11.2  14.4   9.1  23.6  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  67.0  66.0  72.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   6.0  -3.0   5.0   4.0  -6.0 -10.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%