Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082024 240814 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.00    140.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  16.4  17.1  15.2  10.4  16.3  18.3  17.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  34.0  34.0  30.0  32.0  36.0  41.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  80.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  10.0  15.0 -11.0  25.0  35.0   7.0  46.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  67.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   0.0   6.0   7.0  -6.0  -5.0  -8.0  10.0  U  N  N  N  F  F  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.2%       18.9%       20.1%
 25kt / 24h       35.5%       56.9%       46.2%
 30kt / 24h       32.8%       50.3%       41.6%
 35kt / 24h       32.8%       50.3%       41.6%
 40kt / 24h       13.0%       49.9%       31.4%
 45kt / 36h       33.1%       49.7%       41.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       31.4%       15.7%
 55kt / 48h       22.3%       37.0%       29.7%
 70kt / 48h        5.6%       16.2%       10.9%
 65kt / 72h        7.9%       19.7%       13.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.50

 WP082024 240814 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.00    140.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  16.4  17.1  15.2  10.4  16.3  18.3  17.8  N  U  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  67.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   0.0   6.0   7.0  -6.0  -5.0  -8.0  10.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%