Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082024 240814 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90    140.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  15.2  12.2  10.9  12.4   9.5  19.5  21.6  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  32.0  31.0  33.0  34.0  45.0   5.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  88.6  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0  14.0  -4.0   1.0  18.0  29.0  22.0  59.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  73.0  74.0  75.0  73.0  68.0  73.0  68.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   2.0   4.0  -7.0 -15.0  -9.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  F VF  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.6%        9.3%       10.5%
 25kt / 24h       20.0%       39.8%       29.9%
 30kt / 24h       19.5%       31.2%       25.4%
 35kt / 24h       19.5%       31.2%       25.4%
 40kt / 24h        6.6%       31.2%       18.9%
 45kt / 36h       25.3%       28.5%       26.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.3%        6.7%
 55kt / 48h       20.5%       27.5%       24.0%
 70kt / 48h        5.5%        9.2%        7.4%
 65kt / 72h        4.7%        9.4%        7.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.50

 WP082024 240814 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90    140.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  15.2  12.2  10.9  12.4   9.5  19.5  21.6  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  73.0  74.0  75.0  73.0  68.0  73.0  68.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   2.0   4.0  -7.0 -15.0  -9.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  U VU  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%