Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082024 240814 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60    141.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  13.0  12.1  10.4  15.3  17.2  17.8  28.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  31.0  33.0  32.0  39.0  21.0   5.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  71.6  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  16.0  21.0  23.0  35.0  -3.0  56.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  64.0  59.0  60.0  59.0  62.0  59.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   0.0   1.0 -15.0 -10.0   2.0  14.0  N  N  N  N VF  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.1%       13.9%       14.5%
 25kt / 24h       27.1%       47.9%       37.5%
 30kt / 24h       25.6%       41.9%       33.7%
 35kt / 24h       24.3%       41.9%       33.1%
 40kt / 24h       13.0%       41.9%       27.4%
 45kt / 36h       28.3%       28.9%       28.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.8%        6.9%
 55kt / 48h       16.6%       25.5%       21.0%
 70kt / 48h        5.0%        7.8%        6.4%
 65kt / 72h        4.3%        5.4%        4.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.40

 WP082024 240814 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60    141.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  13.0  12.1  10.4  15.3  17.2  17.8  28.8  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  64.0  59.0  60.0  59.0  62.0  59.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   0.0   1.0 -15.0 -10.0   2.0  14.0  N  N  N  N VU  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%