Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082024 240814 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.40    141.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  12.3  10.8  14.7  12.6  20.5  21.6  26.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  33.0  32.0  34.0  45.0   7.0  29.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  77.9  56.2  26.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  21.0  23.0   8.0  31.0  30.0  60.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  59.0  63.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0 -12.0 -15.0   1.0  21.0  10.0  N  N  N  F VF  N VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       52.4%       35.4%       43.9%
 25kt / 24h       61.1%       68.8%       65.0%
 30kt / 24h       61.1%       68.8%       65.0%
 35kt / 24h       61.1%       68.8%       65.0%
 40kt / 24h       36.9%       68.8%       52.9%
 45kt / 36h       44.2%       42.4%       43.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       25.8%       12.9%
 55kt / 48h       16.5%       28.7%       22.6%
 70kt / 48h        4.6%        8.9%        6.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.26

 WP082024 240814 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.40    141.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  12.3  10.8  14.7  12.6  20.5  21.6  26.7  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  59.0  63.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  N  N  F  N  F  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0 -12.0 -15.0   1.0  21.0  10.0  N  N  N  U VU  N VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%