Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082024 240815 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.70    141.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.7  10.1  12.9  14.0  17.0  19.6  35.0  36.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  34.0  36.0  44.0   7.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  79.3  53.5  28.6  15.5  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  23.0  -9.0  15.0   4.0  47.0  46.0  27.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  63.0  59.0  56.0  61.0  60.0  53.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0  19.0  32.0  -6.0  N  N  F  F  F VU VU  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       43.4%       23.0%       33.2%
 25kt / 24h       44.3%       46.3%       45.3%
 30kt / 24h       44.3%       43.7%       44.0%
 35kt / 24h       44.3%       43.7%       44.0%
 40kt / 24h       22.3%       43.7%       33.0%
 45kt / 36h       47.1%       24.1%       35.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.1%        6.1%
 55kt / 48h        8.1%        8.5%        8.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.02

 WP082024 240815 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.70    141.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.7  10.1  12.9  14.0  17.0  19.6  35.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  63.0  59.0  56.0  61.0  60.0  53.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0  19.0  32.0  -6.0  N  N  U  U  U VF VF  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%