Rapid Intensification Guidance WP082024 240815 06UTC Storm Located at : 30.60 141.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 46.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 9.2 13.1 15.8 10.1 19.9 26.3 31.7 33.5 F F F F N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 35.0 35.0 43.0 33.0 3.0 30.0 0.0 0.0 U U N U U U U U Potential [kt] 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 56.5 50.5 10.5 7.0 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 15.0 -15.0 23.0 22.0 14.0 71.0 58.0 44.0 U U U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 63.0 60.0 57.0 61.0 63.0 63.0 51.0 N N N U N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -10.0 -17.0 -18.0 -1.0 24.0 12.0 7.0 N F VF VF N VU U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 39.0% 24.0% 31.5% 25kt / 24h 42.8% 45.7% 44.2% 30kt / 24h 42.8% 43.1% 43.0% 35kt / 24h 42.8% 43.1% 43.0% 40kt / 24h 17.9% 43.1% 30.5% 45kt / 36h 42.9% 20.1% 31.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 10.1% 5.1% 55kt / 48h 4.9% 4.7% 4.8% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.82 WP082024 240815 06UTC Storm Located at : 30.60 141.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 9.2 13.1 15.8 10.1 19.9 26.3 31.7 33.5 U U U U N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 63.0 60.0 57.0 61.0 63.0 63.0 51.0 N N N F N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -10.0 -17.0 -18.0 -1.0 24.0 12.0 7.0 N U VU VU N VF F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%