Rapid Intensification Guidance WP082024 240815 12UTC Storm Located at : 31.50 140.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 64.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 27.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.9 11.2 11.6 16.7 20.1 30.8 37.8 47.4 F F F F N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 35.0 42.0 40.0 10.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 70.0 70.0 70.0 70.0 47.4 13.0 2.0 -8.2 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 12.0 44.0 43.0 5.0 54.0 61.0 79.0 64.0 U N N U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 61.0 60.0 58.0 63.0 62.0 54.0 47.0 N N N U N N U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -7.0 -3.0 -10.0 3.0 12.0 18.0 33.0 F F N F N U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 42.6% 27.6% 35.1% 25kt / 24h 38.6% 46.9% 42.8% 30kt / 24h 38.6% 44.8% 41.7% 35kt / 24h 38.6% 44.8% 41.7% 40kt / 24h 19.3% 44.3% 31.8% 45kt / 36h 47.8% 22.2% 35.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 11.9% 6.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.50 WP082024 240815 12UTC Storm Located at : 31.50 140.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.9 11.2 11.6 16.7 20.1 30.8 37.8 47.4 U U U N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 61.0 60.0 58.0 63.0 62.0 54.0 47.0 N N N F N N F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -7.0 -3.0 -10.0 3.0 12.0 18.0 33.0 U U N U N F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%