Rapid Intensification Guidance WP082024 240816 12UTC Storm Located at : 35.00 142.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 53.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 14.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.6 20.5 30.1 32.5 33.3 40.9 40.0 53.1 N N N U U VU U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 31.0 45.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 60.0 43.6 16.1 -3.3 -6.8 -8.0 -26.6 -49.7 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -8.0 36.0 55.0 59.0 89.0 57.0 129.0 82.0 U N N N F N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 67.0 67.0 68.0 60.0 56.0 54.0 48.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 10.0 10.0 31.0 1.0 19.0 68.0 29.0 N U U VU N VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.24 WP082024 240816 12UTC Storm Located at : 35.00 142.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105.