Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082024 240816 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.80    143.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  29.3  33.7  29.9  38.7  39.3  40.9  44.1  N  N  U  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  11.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.4  22.7   2.9   5.4  -1.8  -9.3 -37.8 -53.8  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  57.0  70.0  85.0  70.0  62.0 107.0  76.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  51.0  52.0  52.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0  18.0  30.0  14.0  23.0   6.0  17.0  39.0  U VU VU  U VU  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.4%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.46

 WP082024 240816 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.80    143.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.