Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082024 240817 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.20    145.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.5  32.2  35.8  39.2  39.6  39.6  39.6  39.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         16.7  19.4  15.4  11.7 -38.2 -38.2 -38.2 -38.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  86.0  65.0  70.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  56.0  51.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  28.0  20.0  12.0  -1.0  36.0  36.0  36.0  36.0 VU VU  U  N VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.64

 WP082024 240817 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.20    145.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.