Rapid Intensification Guidance WP082024 240818 18UTC Storm Located at : 43.30 161.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.20 F TC SIZE [%] 158.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 44.6 48.5 52.4 57.7 58.1 33.1 34.6 31.6 VU VU VU VU VU U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 2.7 -7.7 -10.8 -11.4 -11.6 -12.4 -14.0 -15.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 67.0 77.0 99.0 54.0 117.0 80.0 61.0 88.0 N N F N F N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 58.0 59.0 66.0 68.0 64.0 62.0 76.0 U U U N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 82.0 90.0 125.0 121.0 15.0 -14.0 -12.0 5.0 VU VU VU VU U VF F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 15.68 WP082024 240818 18UTC Storm Located at : 43.30 161.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.