Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP082024 240819 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     45.60    165.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    149.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        53.3  50.2  54.7  39.9  18.6  31.7  35.4  23.6 VU VU VU  U  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -5.5  -7.1  -6.8  -6.9  -7.2  -8.4  -9.6  -8.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    97.0  77.0  64.0  79.0  65.0  59.0  77.0  69.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  58.0  60.0  66.0  61.0  59.0  65.0  76.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  46.0  76.0  18.0   6.0   1.0   1.0   8.0   9.0 VU VU VU  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 12.44

 WP082024 240819 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     45.60    165.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.