Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092024 240813 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90    150.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  26.6  17.5  16.0  16.2  13.9  21.5  22.1  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0   8.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.6 121.5 111.6 109.8 104.4  84.4  66.7  57.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  24.0  13.0  11.0   8.0  17.0  21.0  19.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  72.0  71.0  68.0  63.0  66.0  63.0  60.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0 -20.0 -14.0 -12.0 -14.0   0.0   7.0   9.0  F VF VF  F VF  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        8.9%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        3.2%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.7%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.7%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%       17.7%        9.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.6%        3.3%
 55kt / 48h        2.7%        2.7%        2.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        6.0%        4.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        4.1%        2.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.72

 WP092024 240813 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.90    150.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  26.6  17.5  16.0  16.2  13.9  21.5  22.1  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  72.0  71.0  68.0  63.0  66.0  63.0  60.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0 -20.0 -14.0 -12.0 -14.0   0.0   7.0   9.0  U VU VU  U VU  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%