Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092024 240813 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60    150.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  20.2  16.1  17.7  17.6  21.4  25.2  26.7  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  19.0  14.0  12.0  15.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        139.3 134.6 127.9 125.7 111.6  76.7  51.2  45.8  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0   0.0  31.0  41.0  13.0  49.0  12.0  10.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  67.0  66.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  61.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -22.0 -15.0 -19.0 -19.0   2.0  -1.0  14.0  -4.0 VF VF VF VF  N  N  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.1%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%       10.9%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        3.8%        2.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        3.4%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%       16.7%        9.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.7%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h        2.8%        2.8%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        2.8%        4.1%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        2.2%        1.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.18

 WP092024 240813 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.60    150.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.2  20.2  16.1  17.7  17.6  21.4  25.2  26.7  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  67.0  66.0  62.0  61.0  60.0  61.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -22.0 -15.0 -19.0 -19.0   2.0  -1.0  14.0  -4.0 VU VU VU VU  N  N  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%