Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092024 240813 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10    149.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  17.5  19.9  17.4  12.9  21.4  19.7  27.8  N  F  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  17.0  13.0  13.0  12.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.6 125.1 120.7 116.5  88.0  46.2  36.7  40.8  F  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  23.0  20.0  20.0  23.0  -9.0  45.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  62.0  63.0  62.0  59.0  59.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -14.0 -22.0 -17.0   1.0   6.0  12.0   2.0 VF VF VF VF  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.2%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        8.1%        4.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.8%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.5%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.5%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%       12.1%        6.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.7%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        3.7%        3.7%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.7%        2.3%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.00

 WP092024 240813 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10    149.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.8  17.5  19.9  17.4  12.9  21.4  19.7  27.8  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  62.0  63.0  62.0  59.0  59.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -14.0 -22.0 -17.0   1.0   6.0  12.0   2.0 VU VU VU VU  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%