Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092024 240813 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.80    149.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  21.8  20.7  20.3  20.4  24.2  22.8  24.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   8.0   3.0  12.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        118.6 114.4 103.0 103.0  78.0  60.7  63.8  86.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  19.0  11.0  64.0  26.0   8.0   0.0   1.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  70.0  70.0  65.0  62.0  58.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -19.0 -17.0  -7.0   0.0  11.0   2.0   0.0 VF VF VF  F  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.8%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.1%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        6.4%        3.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.5%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.46

 WP092024 240813 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.80    149.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.