Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092024 240814 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.90    148.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  23.4  20.9  16.6  23.8  22.4  25.1  16.8  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0   7.0  14.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.4 104.8 104.8 103.0  71.7  67.0  76.7 103.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  13.0  47.0  35.0  15.0  32.0  -8.0   4.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  66.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -20.0 -18.0  -6.0  -6.0   3.0  14.0   9.0  -6.0 VF VF  F  F  N  U  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.6%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.20

 WP092024 240814 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.90    148.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.