Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092024 240814 06UTC Storm Located at : 30.60 148.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.20 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.4 19.6 16.9 18.9 22.6 21.5 20.7 27.4 N N F N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 4.0 12.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 29.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 104.8 104.8 101.2 79.4 67.0 69.3 97.7 101.2 N N N N U U N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 26.0 55.0 13.0 29.0 1.0 6.0 6.0 -14.0 U N U N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 71.0 68.0 67.0 65.0 60.0 55.0 52.0 N N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -11.0 -12.0 -5.0 9.0 2.0 -7.0 -12.0 F F F F U N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.5% 0.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 70kt / 48h 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.68 WP092024 240814 06UTC Storm Located at : 30.60 148.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.