Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092024 240814 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.30    146.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  24.1  25.7  21.4  31.1  33.5  39.3  47.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  27.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.3  77.9  73.2  66.7  55.0  84.4  99.3  88.6  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  16.0  -3.0   5.0   2.0  -4.0 -19.0 -26.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  57.0  58.0  50.0  45.0  44.0  49.0  N  N  U  U  U VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0   1.0  13.0  12.0 -10.0 -14.0 -13.0  -6.0 VF  N  U  U  F VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.34

 WP092024 240814 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.30    146.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.