Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092024 240815 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.00    146.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  22.5  22.4  21.8  29.8  31.2  40.7  53.5  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  26.0  29.0  32.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.7  80.5  77.0  78.2  98.0 106.0  98.0  78.2  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  28.0  17.0  36.0  -1.0 -24.0 -16.0 -17.0  N  U  U  N  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  55.0  56.0  51.0  48.0  44.0  44.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0   1.0  15.0   2.0 -14.0 -24.0  -3.0   7.0  F  N  U  N VF VF  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.98

 WP092024 240815 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.00    146.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.