Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092024 240815 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.30    147.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  24.4  22.9  27.9  26.9  35.0  44.1  59.7  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  42.0  23.0  29.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.7  78.2  78.2  84.2 111.2 111.2 101.1  80.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  -7.0  26.0  17.0   5.0 -43.0  -6.0 -25.0  N  U  U  U  U VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  46.0  46.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0  13.0  13.0   1.0 -12.0  -8.0   8.0  16.0  N  U  U  N  F  F  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.76

 WP092024 240815 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.30    147.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.