Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092024 240815 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.80    148.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  23.8  24.2  28.4  25.3  32.0  43.2  53.3  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  23.0  38.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         78.2  77.0  81.7  92.2 109.4 104.3  90.8  74.8  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  29.0  15.0 -20.0 -11.0 -41.0 -43.0 -47.0  U  N  U VU  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  50.0  51.0  46.0  45.0  47.0  49.0  58.0  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   2.0  -7.0 -26.0 -23.0 -18.0  -4.0  17.0  U  N  F VF VF VF  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.2%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.80

 WP092024 240815 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.80    148.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.