Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102024 240819 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.10    125.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  26.0  26.4  19.3  18.6  18.6  18.6  18.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   74.0  61.0  52.0  40.0  23.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  21.0  -8.0  33.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  49.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  67.0  70.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -22.0 -18.0  -6.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0 VF VF VF  F  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.4%       12.2%        7.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        4.0%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        3.3%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.3%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        3.7%       23.9%       13.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.6%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h        8.4%       11.5%       10.0%
 70kt / 48h        3.0%        8.6%        5.8%
 65kt / 72h        9.7%       22.3%       16.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.10

 WP102024 240819 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.10    125.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  26.0  26.4  19.3  18.6  18.6  18.6  18.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  67.0  70.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -16.0 -22.0 -18.0  -6.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  15.0 VU VU VU  U  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%