Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102024 240819 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30    126.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      7.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  26.1  16.7  14.9  19.7  32.3  32.3  32.3  N  N  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  51.0  39.0  31.0  21.0  40.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 117.9 117.9 117.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0 -12.0  24.0  39.0  51.0  63.0  63.0  63.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  77.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -23.0 -20.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   9.0   9.0   9.0 VF VF  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        1.6%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        4.5%       15.8%       10.1%
 30kt / 24h        3.2%        5.9%        4.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        5.6%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        5.6%        3.1%
 45kt / 36h        5.7%       17.7%       11.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.2%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        5.8%        7.1%        6.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.3%        4.0%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.7%        5.9%        4.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.06

 WP102024 240819 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30    126.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  26.1  16.7  14.9  19.7  32.3  32.3  32.3  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  77.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -23.0 -20.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   9.0   9.0   9.0 VU VU  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%