Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102024 240819 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.70    125.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  19.6  20.2  20.3  30.1  30.1  30.1  30.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  41.0  32.0  14.0  11.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -11.0  20.0  40.0  41.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  44.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  69.0  70.0  72.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0   0.0   3.0  17.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0 VF  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        9.3%        5.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        3.1%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.8%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        2.8%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%        8.6%        5.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        3.7%        2.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        3.1%        2.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.82

 WP102024 240819 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.70    125.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  19.6  20.2  20.3  30.1  30.1  30.1  30.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  69.0  70.0  72.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0   0.0   3.0  17.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0 VU  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%